The PMAR is an education programme with a duration of two academic years. The first takes in pupils who otherwise would be in the 2nd year of Compulsory Secondary Education (ESO), and the second, pupils who would be in the 3rd year of ESO. Upon completing the programme, the participants return to the ordinary group to take the 4th year of ESO and obtain their certificate.

The main result of the research, conducted using data from the Principality of Asturias, shows that pupils who accessed PMAR in 2016-2017 present a greater probability of continuing in the education system at the end of two years, or of leaving it with the ESO certificate. Therefore, it seems clear that the programme is contributing to preventing early school leaving. As can be observed in the graph, the improvement is significantly greater in females than in males. 

To reach these conclusions, statistical analysis has been conducted on the evolution of pupils who accessed the PMAR programme, comparing it with the evolution of another group that met the basic requirements for access to the programme but did not participate in it. Thus, the results obtained come from comparing the two groups, whose members, in any event, had repeated at least one academic year and would have at least one subject pending. In the comparison, personal and environmental factors have been taken into account. Among the participants it is observed that average continuity in the education system after two years and average ESO qualification are greater than among non-participants. 

Identifying early school leaving is usually done by taking the percentage of the population aged 18 to 24 years that is not following any type of education or training programme. In the literature that exists on early school leaving, various causes have been studied, due to situations both external to the education system and internal “expulsion factors”, related with programme design or teaching quality problems.

Among the consequences of early leaving is a higher probability of ending up joining the dole queue, or of working in precarious and poorly paid jobs. To this, we must add other economic costs, in terms of low productivity; fiscal costs, due to the low collection of tax revenue; and social costs, deriving from services for the dependent population. Some authors have come to establish a clear link between early school leaving and social exclusion.

If the recent evolution of early school leaving is reviewed, in Spain and the EU alike, a tendency towards improvement is observed. In Spain, the years of the economic boom prior to the 2008 crisis temporarily curbed this positive trend, discouraging permanence in the education system due to high demand for low-skilled work offering high wages, as well as the low wage premium for academic studies. From the crisis onwards, the descent in the early leaving rate has been sustained, although in 2019 it continued to be significantly higher than the EU-15 average.

In contrast with the disadvantages faced by females in the labour market and their lesser representation in studies of a technical type, early school leaving largely affects males. An important body of research exists that has concluded that females project their hopes for the future into their studies. Females feel motivated with regard to schooling with greater intensity, among other reasons, because they are aware that they need more training to compete in better conditions in a labour market that presents more obstacles for women. Both unemployment and low wages are problems that affect the population with low education levels, but women much more than men. These patterns are repeated in the majority of countries, although they are especially pronounced in Spain.

The data on early school leaving indicate notable regional differences in Spain. Among other factors explaining these differences are the structure of the labour  market, employment opportunities for young people, and the type of occupations and their classification, as well as the population’s sociocultural and economic level. It is also worth considering the different levels of investment in the education system of Spain’s autonomous communities, as they are the competent authorities for education policies and have been very important agents of innovation. 

Initiatives exist to counter early school leaving, based on economic compensation for pupils who gain their ESO certificate or who return to earn it, such as the Andalusian Second Opportunity Scholarship; plans for hiring teachers and technical staff, or the extension of timetables, such as the Ítaca Project in Extremadura; and specific programmes or those aimed at disadvantaged groups, such as the Pupitre Gitano (Gypsy Desk) scheme by the Fundación Secretariado Gitano (Gypsy Secretariat Foundation). However, it is difficult to quantify the impact of these specific measures. In any case, with the exceptions of Catalonia and the Valencian Community in 2019, if we mark the north-south frontier, all the communities of Northern Spain are below the national average for early school leaving, while those in Southern Spain exceed recorded national values.

We see that early school leaving is not a new problem. It is usually tackled in Spain and in other countries, by strengthening strategies of diversification and flexibilization of itineraries, with the end aim of preventing dropout and, ultimately, of improving processes of educational and social inclusion. 

With the entry into force of the Organic Law of Education governing the education system (LOE, 2006), the need was recognised of establishing curricular adaptations and diversifications with the aim of reducing early school leaving and improving educational and qualification prospects.  The LOE had continuity with the LOMCE (2013), which activated the PMAR, which does not differ too much from the Curricular Diversification Programme (PDC) which it substituted. The main difference between the PMAR and the PDC is its nonfinalist nature, since it eliminates the possibility of qualifying without leaving the programme which the PDC offered, as well as also eliminating the socalled “practical sphere”. The PMAR does, however, offer a “soft” transition towards the 4th year of ESO, which students follow with the ordinary group. However, in this final year there are two options: one geared towards academic studies and the other towards applied studies, and the PMAR pupils in their majority choose the latter, which basically orients them towards vocational training programmes.

With respect to access to PMAR, in both the 2nd and 3rd years of ESO, the basic conditions are: having repeated for at least one year in any educational phase and not being in conditions for promotion with the ordinary group. The teaching staff at the schools are in charge of proposing participation in the programme, after carefully evaluating each case. The centres report on their proposals to the pupils and their families or whoever their legal guardians are, as they will ultimately be the ones who make the decision regarding whether or not to enter the programme. 
Once in the PMAR, pupils find their contents and practical activities reorganised. Through small groups (usually 8-15 pupils), they are taught subjects grouped into the three areas of Linguistics and Social, Scientific and Mathematical, and Foreign Languages. The remaining subjects are taught in the ordinary group, with shared spaces and teaching methodology.

To confirm whether the PMAR contributes to reducing early school leaving and increasing ESO certification, in this research a technique called Propensity Score Matching has been used, through which each participant is assigned a nonparticipant who is as similar as possible to them with regard to a large number of characteristics prior to entry into the programme. The comparison of each pair of persons generates the results that appear reflected here by groups, PMAR year, and sex. The technique used, although not guaranteeing the existence of a cause-effect relationship, aims to come as close to it as possible.

 The PMAR was set up for the first time in the academic year 2016-2017. Pupils who joined the programme in the 2nd year of ESO during that academic year increased the probability of gaining their certificate after two years, in the academic year 2018-2019, by 8.4%. For this, they had to pass the 3rd and 4th years of ESO. However, this increase is not demonstrated statistically if we take into account only male pupils. In contrast, if female pupils are viewed separately, then it is demonstrated and it is even higher: around 10%. 

Moreover, pupils who, when the PMAR was launched, had already passed the 2nd year of ESO, and joined the programme only in the 3rd academic year, also improved their prospects of gaining their certificate. In this case, the increase in the probability of finishing ESO successfully at the end of one year rises to 13.7% for the total, and is higher among females than among males. If the probability of completing ESO at the end of an additional year (for example repeating the 4th year of ESO) is contemplated, then having participated in the PMAR also increases pupils’ prospects: again, the increase is higher among females (15.3%) than among males (8.6%). 

This research demonstrates that those who participate in the PMAR, the two-year programme for pupils at risk of early school leaving, increase their probability of continuing in the education system (or leaving with their ESO certificate) by around 12% after two years. Therefore, the programme helps to reduce early school leaving, especially among females. This result contrasts with some warnings that exist regarding the programme’s design and with the fear that the return of pupils to the ordinary group to take their 4th year of secondary education could make the obtaining of the ESO certificate more difficult.