According to official statistics, the leaving from education and training rate, defined as the percentage of young people aged between 18 and 24 years who have not achieved a higher secondary education certification and are not studying stood, in the year 2019, at 17.3% in Spain and around 19% in Catalonia. Although in the last ten years there has been a significant reduction in this phenomenon of 14.4 percentage points, the percentage is still a long way off from the European Union average (10%).

In Spain, there is no regular system for collecting information that enables the educational trajectories that precede early leaving from education and training to be identified. In Catalonia, the Education Authority has recently promoted an official register of enrolled pupils (RALC) for those in non-university education that enables monitoring of their itineraries. The study on which this article is based tackles early leaving from education and training based on the monitoring of nearly 74,000 students born in the year 2001, the majority of whom were in the fourth year of ESO in the 2015-2016 academic year, and it analyses their itineraries based on what they were doing in the period between the academic years 2016-2017 and 2019-2020.

The reconstruction of the learning itineraries of pupils enables us to take a closer look at educational con-tinuity and early leaving from education and training. Figure 1 shows the educational trajectories of young people born in the year 2001, when the majority were in the 4th year of ESO in the 2016-2017 academic year. Monitoring over the course of the three subsequent academic years shows how nearly half of the pupils (46%) have followed a Baccalaureate itinerary; some 13.9%, a middle-grade vocational training cycle (CFGM); and some 13.2%, a higher-grade vocational training cycle (CFGS), among the main educational trajectories.

At the same time, two out of every ten young people (21%) ended up leaving school early without having obtained any post-compulsory education qualification. Upon ending compulsory secondary education, the school leaving rate is 14%, but this percentage increases over the course of post-compulsory education, in the middle-grade training cycles (4%) and the Baccalaureate (2.7%).

Nearly half of the young people in this age group (45.7%) present discontinuities in their itineraries, whether due to repeating a year, changing course, or alternatively leaving temporarily or permanently. This discontinuity is more obvious in itineraries that culminate in early leaving after ESO (73%) and in itineraries for middle-grade (67%) and high-grade (64%) vocational training. 

There are some indicators that enable more in-depth study of early leaving from education and training, such as repeating a year, low academic grades or educational delay, which affects those pupils who are not in the academic year corresponding to their age.

One in every five young people (21%) is not enrolled in the academic year that theoretically would correspond to their age in compulsory education and, similarly, one in every four (25%) has repeated a year in post-compulsory education. This makes clear the dimension and importance of experiences in repeating years within the Catalan context in both compulsory and post-compulsory education.

Repeating a year and educational delay can be considered as indicators of vulnerability to early leaving from education and training. Pupils who are enrolled in a year that does not correspond to their age, or alternatively who have had to repeat a year during compulsory education, are overrepresented in those itineraries that are still taking ESO and those who have left school following ESO. Similarly, nearly half of the young people following middle-grade training cycles have repeated at least one year in compulsory education. With regard to pupils who have left middle-grade training cycles, over 39% had repeated a year during the compulsory education phase.
 

The academic year repetition rate is above average among young people who have taken middle-grade training cycles (55%) and those who left during Baccalaureate or middle-grade training cycles (34.2% and 33.6%, respectively). As noted previously, nearly one in every two young people who have followed a mid-dle-grade vocational training itinerary have repeated an academic year previously or have been incorporated into the education system with a delay. Some of these pupils repeat an academic year again when taking post-compulsory studies.

Another indicator that enables the explanation of the trajectories of pupils in post-compulsory studies are the grades obtained in ESO. There is a register of this indicator at 85% of publicly-owned schools, but this is not the case at private schools. For this reason, figure 3 describes the incidence of grades on the itineraries of pupils schooled at publicly-owned schools in Catalonia.

Those young people who leave school at the end of ESO and who present an educational delay in this phase obtain average scores below 5. Pupils taking the Baccalaureate are those who have obtained the highest average grade (7.4) in secondary education. Moreover, pupils in higher-grade training cycles present an average grade of 6.6, which is explained, in part, by the weight in this itinerary of the presence of young people who access it from middle-grade training cycles.

Despite this, not all early leaving from education and training is understood as a consequence of poor academic outcomes (figure 4). Around six out of every ten young people who are early leavers have grades above 5, which indicates that academic grades do not completely explain early leaving from education and training. 

Unfortunately, the under-registration of information on reasons stated for early leaving do not enable more in-depth study of the reasons for early leaving from education and training.

One of the central elements in the analysis of educational inequalities is the effect that social inequalities have on the expectations and choices of young people. Based on indicators referring to pupils with recognition of educational needs – deriving from especially disadvantaged socioeconomic situations or their late incorporation into the education system – differences in educational continuity and early leaving from education and training are analysed. 

Figure 5 shows how the percentage of young people with special socioeconomic needs, whether due to social reasons or to late incorporation into the education system, doubles the average rate of the whole of the population analysed.

The nationality of pupils influences unequal opportunities when it comes to continuing to study or taking the decision to leave education and training early. Of the whole of the population analysed, born in the year 2001, pupils born outside of Spain represent 15.8%. In contrast, they are over-represented in the early leaving itineraries and under-represented in those of completion of post-compulsory education. While close to 21% of total pupils leave school early, this percentage increases up to 36.1% in the case of pupils born abroad. Meanwhile, some 42.6% of pupils born outside of Spain complete higher secondary education, against 18.5% of pupils born outside of Spain. 

Schooling conditions have a strong influence on young people’s educational itineraries. Being schooled at a maximum-complexity centre doubles the probabilities of leaving education in the transition to post-compulsory education: 40% against 20% of early leaving at medium- and low-complexity schools. 

Young people born in Spain are much less likely to leave school in comparison with young people born outside of Spain, but these differences diminish when pupils are schooled at maximum-complexity schools. As we can see in figure 7, the differences according to backgrounds are minimised when both groups are schooled at maximum-complexity schools. For pupils of native origin schooled at high-complexity schools, the probabilities of leaving school early are 37%, nearly the same percentage that is observed among pupils born abroad and schooled at other types of centres.

The study upon which this article is based enables more precise information to be made available on the promotion and completion of studies, as well as on repeating years, changing courses, interruptions, re-admission and early leaving. It may, therefore, be extremely useful for administrators and those with political responsibility, in order to identify the groups, the times, and the conditions of greatest vulnerability in the educational environment.

The results of the study provide reflections for the debate on policies for reducing early leaving from edu-cation and training. The improvement in success in compulsory education is a sine qua non condition for the reduction of early leaving, although this also involves a reduction in social inequalities. In this sense, the struggle against school segregation becomes a fundamental challenge of our education system. More-over, the concentration of vulnerable pupils at high-complexity centres increases the probabilities of leaving school early. 

Academic year repetitions and changes of course show the need for rethinking educational guidance and accompaniment. It is of capital importance to introduce strategies for guidance and accompaniment, with the territory’s socio-educational agents and resources, for socially more vulnerable pupils and before these pupils leave the education system.

Learning in middle-grade training cycles deserves special attention, because there is a convergence of differentiated social and school profiles: leaving during Baccalaureate, repeating one of the years in ESO, basic vocational training programmes, access tests and courses, etc. This heterogeneity of itineraries shows the diversity of social functions for vocational training and situates it at the crossroads of the education system and in one of its fundamental challenges.

The study presents four fundamental limitations. The first, already pointed out, is the under-registration of information on reasons for early leaving from education and training.

The second is the omission, in the register, of non-formal learning, such as basic vocational training, learning at schools for adults, second-opportunity schools, etc.

A third limitation is of a sociological nature, because there is no access to sociodemographic data, such as family education levels or occupations of parents, which allow an analysis from the perspective of inequalities according to family background.

Finally, there are also limitations of academic information in relation with grades, by private centres, and maximum qualification achieved.

However, the study shows the relevance of having a regular register of educational trajectories of pupils for the detection and early socio-educational intervention. 

It is important to mention, finally, a methodological note regarding the classification of centres according to their complexity. The list of publicly-owned centres of maximum complexity is drawn up by the Catalan Government’s Department of Education based on the following context indicators: low level of education of parents or guardians; holding of jobs with a low professional qualification by parents or guardians; significant number of parents or guardians receiving a minimum integration income; high percentage of parents or guardians in a situation of unemployment; high percentage of pupils with specific educational needs and high percentage of newly arrived pupils. 

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