In recent decades, Spain has experienced a reduction in average precipitation, an increase in average temperatures, and a higher frequency of heatwaves compared to other EU countries. At the same time, in many Spanish rural areas, populations are decreasing, and small farmers are losing bargaining power in global trade, even though Spain is one of the countries with the highest proportion of agricultural gross domestic product in the EU. All these changes are drivers of vulnerability, which can be defined as the degree to which an area is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse effects (e.g., climate change, depopulation, and/or globalisation).

In this study, the authors developed a socio-environmental index of vulnerability to climate change, depopulation, and the globalisation of agricultural trade. The index is informed by data from 27 social and environmental variables, such as population growth, number of firms, average precipitation change, and risk of fires, which were used to characterise the more than 8,000 municipalities and 344 counties of Spain. 

The distribution of vulnerability is not homogeneous across Spanish rural areas. The most vulnerable counties are located in Castilla y León (here, 77% of the counties score high for vulnerability), in Navarra (43%), and in Castilla-La Mancha (34%). Furthermore, high-vulnerability counties are also quite heterogeneous, meaning that they include both high- and low-vulnerability municipalities. This does not happen in low vulnerability counties (all municipalities within them tend to have low vulnerability).

Vulnerability to climate change is particularly present in Cantabria and Castilla y León (more than half of the counties highly affected), followed by Galicia, Asturias, and Castilla-La Mancha. The main manifestations of such vulnerability are an increase in mean temperature and a decrease in mean rainfall, dependence on rainfed agriculture, and deficits in the availability of water resources of good quantity and quality. These autonomous communities are not necessarily the warmest in Spain, but those where average temperatures and rainfall have increased and decreased the most, respectively.
 

Vulnerability to depopulation is particularly significant in Castilla y León and Cantabria (more than half of the counties affected), followed by Aragon, La Rioja, and Castilla-La Mancha. This vulnerability is mostly explained by the ageing of the population, the negative natural population growth rate, the poor road connectivity of municipalities, and the poor diversification of the local economy. 

Vulnerability to globalisation of agricultural trade is particularly present in Castilla y León and Navarra, followed by Castilla-La Mancha and Aragón. This is mostly explained by economic losses due to a decrease in prices paid to producers for agricultural products, and, to a lesser degree, by the competition of imported products and dependence on small-scale rainfed agriculture.

Although some areas are more affected than others by climate change, depopulation, and globalisation, they are all affected by these three stressors to some degree. A detailed look at how these stressors manifest and combine reveals four clusters of rural areas.

• An “emptied and economically marginalised Spain” is the most vulnerable among the four “Spains”. It covers 2,858 municipalities located mainly in the centre of northern Spain (mostly in Castilla y León and part of Aragón regions) and occupies 21% of the Spanish territory. Compared to the other three “Spains”, these areas are the most affected by depopulation (highest decrease in natural population growth rate, highest aged-to-young people ratio, and highest proportion of small population centres ‒ less than 500 habitants). From a socio-economic standpoint, these territories are the most affected by economic losses due to the decrease in prices paid to producers for agricultural products and the competition with imported products, have the lowest presence of registered firms, and have poor social and road infrastructure. 

• An “economically coping but drying Spain” is the second most vulnerable group and covers 1,112 municipalities distributed mainly in mountain ranges and the perimeter of the first group (13% of Spain). This group is similar to the first group as it also suffers from a high proportion of small population centres, a decrease in natural population growth, and poor road infrastructure. Additionally, this group has the highest decrease in annual average rainfall, which, given its high dependence on non-irrigated crops, makes it the most vulnerable to water scarcity. This cluster, however, has the highest proportion of protected areas and the highest number of registered firms. The authors tentatively associate these two distinctive aspects to a flourishing tourism industry. 

• An “eroding Spain” is represented by 3,198 municipalities distributed all over Spanish territory (54 %), which are mainly located in the regions of Galicia and Asturias and the centre and south of the country. This group is the second least vulnerable among the four. It does not have serious socio-economic problems as measured in the study; however, it is the most affected by wildfires and soil erosion.

• An “exporting Spain” encompasses just 595 municipalities (5% of Spain’s territory), which are primarily located near coastal areas and large cities. This is the least vulnerable group. Its main source of vulnerability has to do with its exposure to the globalisation of agricultural trade, as it is the most dependent on agricultural exports and therefore is affected by the dynamics of global agricultural markets. Importantly, it is also the most dependent on irrigated agriculture, and has the lowest proportion of protected areas.

The “vulnerability belt” identified in this research greatly overlaps with what the media has termed emptied Spain. However, this article shows that there are “other Spains” which, although not equally vulnerable, are also worth monitoring and supporting through specific rural development policies. Currently most of the funds devoted to rural development (i.e., operating within the EU’s LEADER programme) are based on  provincial and county-wide assessments. However, the findings of the research clearly show that the study of vulnerability at the county level may hide important heterogeneities at the municipal level in highly vulnerability counties. Thus, rural development funds should also be tailored to municipal-level diagnoses. 

Additionally, some territories are more affected than others by climate change, depopulation and globalisation. It is thus in this group of territories where more socio-environmentally integrated rural development policies are most needed. 

Another important insight is that the rural areas suffering the most from depopulation and globalisation also tend to suffer from deficits in resources that would permit them to adapt. This aligns with a well-known rural development policy conundrum that needs a solution. As rural areas lose population, governments have fewer incentives to invest in schools, housing, or roads, which in turn discourages people from settling in rural areas. Public investments in logistics could contribute to the development of food processing ventures and ultimately ameliorate vulnerability to global markets, but these investments are less worthwhile in remote rural areas than in better connected areas or urban areas. As posed by previous research, a solution to this conundrum could be found in the initiative of local collectives. These collectives have not only a good knowledge of the characteristics and needs of each territory, but also the power to mobilise the critical mass of people necessary for such innovations to thrive.

ADGER, W. N. (2006): «Vulnerability», Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 268-281. 

APOSTOLOPOULOU, E., et al. (2022): «Radical social innovations and the spatialities of grassroots activism: navigating pathways for tackling inequality and reinventing the commons», Journal of Political Ecology, 29, 143-188. 

GONZÁLEZ DE MOLINA, M., et al. (2019): Historia de la agricultura española desde una perspectiva biofísica, 1900-2010, Gobierno de España, Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación.

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.  

PINILLA, V., and SAEZ, L. A. (2021): «What Do Public Policies Teach Us About Rural Depopulation: The Case Study of Spain», European Countryside, 13(2), 330-351. 
 

*Globalisation understood as the consolidation of a food production and consumption system dominated by multinational companies, global markets and prices, and based on intensive and highly mechanised production of export products, and the search for short-term profitability, among other characteristics.