The variables that have major effects on the quarterly transitions in the direction of either employment or the continuation of redundancies or furlough schemes are of a diverse nature. It can be seen from the data analysed in the research on which this article is based that men showed a greater probability than women of redressing layoff situations in any of the quarters considered. Thus, between the third and the fourth quarter of 2020, the probability of recovering their usual job was 29.82% higher for men than for women.
Nationality is also a significant variable, although it does not have the same sign in all the transitions analysed in the research. Specifically, between the first and the second quarter, and between the third and the fourth, foreign workers had higher probabilities of returning to their usual job, whereas between the second and the third quarter this characteristic was more associated with native workers. Between the third and fourth quarters of 2020, the foreign population were 9.79% more likely to recover their usual job than the native population.
As far as age is concerned, younger workers were more likely to move on from a redundancy or furlough situation, and adults over 46 years of age were less likely. For example, between the third and fourth quarters of 2020, young people had a 20.92% higher probability of returning to their usual job than people aged over 46.
With regard to educational level, no uniform pattern can be seen over the quarterly transitions. For example, between the second and third quarters, it was the least qualified workers who had the highest probability of getting their job back. However, between the third and the fourth quarter, this characteristic corresponds to workers who had completed the first stage of secondary schooling and those with higher education. This could be explained by the seasonality of the Spanish economy, and more specifically, the predominant type of activity in each quarter. Between June and August, economic activity in Spain is linked to low-productivity services, unlike in the last quarter of the year. Thus, between the third and the fourth quarter of 2020, workers with a low educational level had a 56.22% lower probability of returning to their usual job than workers with higher education.
Regional distribution was also unequal throughout 2020. Between the first and the second quarter, the northeast (Basque Country, Navarre, La Rioja and Aragon), together with Madrid, showed the largest likelihood of recovering from the layoff situation. Between the second and third quarters the most positive trend was in the centre (Castile and Leon, Castile-La Mancha and Extremadura) and the northwest (Galicia, Asturias and Cantabria). Between the third and fourth quarters it was in the central region and Madrid again. In this last transition, the worst figures were for the northeast, the east (Catalonia and the Valencian Community) and the islands (Canaries and Balearics), independently of the quarter analysed. In the case of the first geographical area, this may have been due to the high incidence of covid-19 there, and in the rest of the areas, to the importance of the hospitality and retail sectors in those regions. In comparison with workers in the southern region (Andalusia and Murcia), those in the northeast and in the east and the islands were respectively 31% and 24.35% less likely to recover their usual job.
In sectoral terms, the services sector shows less potential to recover normal activity, being highly influenced by the predominance of retail and hospitality in redundancies and furlough schemes. On the other hand, the construction industry (a male-dominated sector) shows a greater likelihood of recovery in all quarters: for example, between the third and fourth quarters of 2020 construction workers were 45.79% more likely than services sector workers to return to the job they had before being laid off.
No clear pattern emerges as regards occupational category: between the second and the third quarters those workers in a position of least responsibility were most likely to find their way out of the layoff situation. However, between the third and fourth quarters of the year, the highest probability corresponded to the most highly skilled workers, with a likelihood of recovering their usual job 44.48% higher than less skilled workers with a lower occupational rank.
Concerning types of contract and work schedule, some notable features are found. Specifically, having a temporary contract or a part-time work schedule are characteristics that are conducive to being able to leave a layoff situation behind. For example, between the third and fourth quarters, workers who have these characteristics are found to be respectively 60.98% and 43.73% more likely to leave redundancy or furlough situations than employees who have another type of contract or schedule. This has major implications for economic activity in Spain, as companies seem to keep workers with a permanent contract and a full-time schedule in a situation of redundancy or furlough. To some degree, such workers can be the most productive, although also those who generate most cost for the company. On the other hand, normal employment activity is regained mostly by workers with a temporary contract and a part-time work schedule, who generate least cost for the company and at the same time may be less productive.