The macroeconomic analyses that we present in this article coincide with the so-called realist conflict theories (see, for example, Ceobanu and Escandell, 2010), according to which fast growth of the immigrant population combined with a strong deterioration in the economic situation would add up to increased competitive pressure on native workers. However, to demonstrate that the rejection of immigration has economic bases, it is not sufficient to establish macroeconomic correlations. We need evidence that connects the specific economic experiences of European workers with their attitudes towards immigration at the micro level, in other words, microeconomic data. This requires individual indicators of economic vulnerability and exposure to competition in the labour markets.
A host of studies have demonstrated that the higher the educational level of the survey respondent, the lower their rejection of immigrants
To date, the majority of studies on individual conditioning factors of attitudes towards immigration had focused on the education of those surveyed as a measure of their market power (Mayda, 2006). A host of studies have demonstrated that the higher the educational level of the survey respondent, the more positive her attitudes towards immigrants (Hainmueller and Hopkins, 2014). However, if what is wanted is proof that increased labour market competition, caused by the arrival of foreign workers, generates increased rejection of immigration, then looking at education level is problematic. This is because education can affect attitudes directly and via pathways that have nothing to do with working experience, for example, by increasing tolerance, a taste for diversity or political correctness. For this reason, to obtain direct evidence of economic conditioning factors in the rejection of immigration, objective indicators are needed that do not depend on education level.
In an older study (Polavieja, 2016), it was proposed to use three occupational indicators that are directly related with workers’ degree of replaceabilityand, therefore, with their degree of exposure to labour market competition. These indicators are: 1) the importance of on-the-job-training (the requirements of specific on-the-job training); 2) the difficulty for employers to measure with precision worker productivity (monitoring costs); and 3) the mixture of communication skills and manual skills required for each occupation. Specific on-the-job training protects workers from outside competition by equipping them with skills that make them less replaceable. Among the occupations with the highest on-the-job training, there are many with low formal education requirements (for example, cable assemblers, tobacco producers, clockmakers, etc.).
The costs of measuring productivity (monitoring costs) are also directly related to the degree of exposure to labour market competition, since the more difficult it is for employers to measure worker productivity, the less their workers are exposed to being replaced. Thus, as happens with on-the-job training, the high costs of measurement favour the closure of employment relations to external competition (Goldthorpe 2007). Among the jobs with the highest measuring costs again there are many occupations that do not require high levels of formal education such as, for example, transport workers, metal workers and office staff.
Native workers have an advantage when performing tasks that require linguistic skills and specific cultural knowledge of their country
Finally, the mixture of communication skills and manual skills required for each occupation is another potentially key factor, because native workers have an advantage when performing tasks that require linguistic skills and specific cultural knowledge of their country. Thus, the greater the occupation’s communication content, the less competition faced from immigrants. Again, we find variations in the mixture of manual and communication skills in occupations with very different requirements in terms of formal education (for example between psychologists and surgeons, or between machinery salespeople and operators). Using these three objective dimensions of occupations enables us to better identify the economic bases of rejection for immigration without falling into the problems of interpretation raised by the use of education levels.